Edition 0014. 04.16.2022. Week of 04.11 - 04.17.2022.
This weekly commentary examines 9 U.S. equity indices. Our aim is to develop a clear picture of how the U.S. market is performing. We analyze performance, price, trend, and momentum. To increase the utility of this research, we use ETFs where possible.
Key Takeaways
US equity indices finished mixed.
Smaller caps finished higher in the S&P and Russell space.
QQQ led the losses.
The Dow Transports led the gains.
In the Dow Averages, transports and industrials were up. Utilities were down.
There is no improvement in momentum as most of the indices are threatening to break below key support levels.
The U.S. Equity Landscape
Performance table sorted by the 1-week rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
Last week was, on average, a losing week for US equity indices, again. It was a uneventful and on low volume as the week was shortened for Good Friday. The largest gain was in the Dow Transports. Our largest loss was the Nasdaq 100. New 4-week closing lows from the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, the Russell 1000, and the Nasdaq 100. There were no new highs.
Performance table sorted by the year-to-date rate-of-change.
Click here for the performance table guide. Click the performance table to enlarge.
US Equity Landscape Performance Year-to-Date Chart.
Click to enlarge.
Year-to-date, the Dow Utility Average remains decidedly positive while all of our other symbols are not. It is also the only symbol in our universe that is in an uptrend with positive momentum as determined by our quantitative model. The symbols in middle of the pack continue to switch positions and remain sideways.
The Charts!
QQQ: The Nasdaq 100 ETF. Click to enlarge.
QQQ lost 3.07% in value last week. Price closed below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Momentum remains negative. Price has broken down below its October 2021 swing low of $350. QQQ remains a downtrend.
Standard & Poor’s ETFs
SPY: The S&P 500 ETF. Click to enlarge.
SPY lost 2.19% in value last week. Price has closed below its upward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Momentum has flattened below its 0 line and has turned down again. Price remains rangebound between $480 and $426.
IJH: The S&P 400 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJH gained 0.39% in value last week. Price remains below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Momentum has turned back down from its average line and downward sloping trendline below 0. It was the only symbol that had an elevated volume reading showing sellers were selling and buyers were buying, unless of course there was some algorithm making a move in mid-caps. Price remains in its 1-year long range.
IJR: The S&P 600 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IJR gained 0.87% in value last week. Price remains below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Momentum remains flat below 0. Price remains in its year-long range.
The Russell ETFs
IWB: The Russell 1000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWB lost 1.97% in value last week. Price remains below its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Momentum has turned down below its average line under below 0. Price remains rangebound above $237.
IWM: The Russell 2000 ETF. Click to enlarge.
IWM gained 0.55% in value last week. Price remains consolidating below $207, the bottom of its 10-month range, beneath its downward sloping 40-week simple moving average. Momentum is flat below zero. Price remains in a downtrend.
Dow Jones Indices
DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Average. Click to enlarge.
DJT gained 2.58% in value last week. Price remains below its flat 40-week simple moving average. Momentum has tuned down from its lower-high and now below 0. Price remains rangebound.
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Average. Click to enlarge.
DJI lost 0.78% in value last week. Price remains printing dojis below its declining 40-week simple moving average. Momentum is flat below its falling moving average line while below 0. Above 33,515, price remains rangebound.
DJU: Down Jones Utility Average. Click to enlarge.
DJU lost 0.86% in value last week. Price has paused just below its all-time high. This looks to be a healthy trend as momentum continued its acceleration to the upside. This remains the only symbol in our universe that is quantitatively in an uptrend with a positive momentum condition AND has a positive year-to-date performance. That YTD gain is now 8.24%. Price is in an uptrend.
Trend Summary Table
The quantitative model has upgraded DJI from downtrend to range and downgraded IWB from range to downtrend. My determination differs on IJH, IJR, DJT, and IWB because I am subjectively taking a longer-term view. The model sees price below declining moving average, while I more subjectively see that these symbols remain above even their 38.2% retracement levels after making monster moves from the 2020 lows.
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